County Trade Pull Factors Influence on County Economic Tier Rankings – 2024
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Collapse ▲County Trade Pull Factors.
County Trade Pull Factors (CTPF) measure the per capita strength of a county’s retail industry relative to its surrounding counties. Derived from sales tax revenue data, CTPF quantifies the annual flow of consumer spending into or out of a county. A CTPF greater than 1.0 indicates the county attracts retail spending from neighboring counties, while a CTPF of exactly 1.0 suggests it retains only its own residents’ spending. A CTPF below 1.0 means the county losing is losing retail business revenue to adjacent counties.
Trade Area Capture (TAC) estimates the total retail spending power of a county’s permanent residents. It is calculated by multiplying the county’s population by its CTPF. This metric reflects the volume of consumer spending the county attracts relative to its population.
Market Share (MS) represents a county’s share of total retail activity compared to all 100 counties in North Carolina. It is calculated by dividing each county’s TAC by the statewide TAC, providing a percentage that reflects the county’s contribution to the state’s overall retail economy.
The same data is also calculated at the district level, as shown in the right-hand columns in the attached file 2024 CTPFs and Index Rankings, highlighting the relative retail strength of individual counties within their respective districts. These district calculations are based on the combined totals of counties within each of the five North Carolina Cooperative Extension Districts: Southeast, Northeast, North Central, South Central and West. This district-level perspective provides additional context for understanding how counties perform within their broader economic region.
For example, in the Southeast District, New Hanover County – the region’s largest economy – has a CTPF of 1.50 when compared to all 100 counties in North Carolina. However, its CTPF rises to 1.69 when evaluated within the 18-county Southeast District, underscoring its economic influence in the region. At the state level, New Hanover County reports a TAC 364,809, compared to its actual population of 243,333, and an MS of 3.27%. Regionally, its TAC increases to 402,771 with a much larger MS of 23.75%, further emphasizing its dominant role in the Southeast District’s economy.
Economic Tier Status.
The NC Commerce Department annually publishes the economic status of each county through a tier ranking system that measures economic distress. Counties are evaluated and ranked from 100 (least distressed) to 1 (most distressed based on four key indicators: median household income (MHI), unemployment (UI), per capita property tax valuation (PTV) and population growth (POP). Each county receives an index ranking for each metric, and the combined total determines its overall economic placement.
This methodology does not account for the migration of wealth between counties, which is significantly influenced by the concentration—or absence—of retail businesses. “Pull factors” help to address this issue by highlighting how money often flows between counties, particularly from those with fewer commercial opportunities compared to neighboring counties with more robust retail sectors. This migration of economic activity is especially pronounced in counties adjacent to large metropolitan areas or those with a high concentration of natural or built attractions that draw visitors and spending.
By incorporating the index values of CTPF, TAC and MS to the state’s economic tier status formula, the tier index increased for 11 counties and decreased for 10. These shifts can significantly impact a county’s eligibility for rural development grants and loans, potentially enabling access to funding that would not be available under the current metrics.
Data Sources:
2024 NC Commerce Department Tier Designations. https://www.commerce.nc.gov/2024-tiers-memoaspublished112923pdf/open#:~:text=Eight%20counties%20will%20change%20tiers,Beaufort%2C%20Gates%2C%20and%20Pasquotank.&text=For%202024%2C%20Avery%20County%20is,Tier%20Three%20to%20Tier%20Two,
NC Department of Revenue. Annual State Sales and Use Tax Statistics – FY 2024. https://www.ncdor.gov/documents/reports/fy23-24salesusestats/open